Thesisly

Your thesis doesn't break. It drifts.

Thesisly reads filings as they drop and surfaces the one line that contradicts your investment case — before you find out on the earnings call.

CRWD • Thesis: intact
────────────────────────────
10-K filed 2024-02-29 ● reviewed
Gross retention → met
R&D spend → met
⚠ Net new ARR decel detected

Clearly illustrative — not a real alert.

You wrote your thesis. Then you stopped reading the filings.

You spent two weeks building a thesis on a capital-light compounder. Wrote it up. Saved it in Notion. Filed the 10-K in your bookmarks. Then twelve months passed, and the company quietly changed its capital allocation priorities — debt on the balance sheet, executive departures, a shift in product mix. You found out on the earnings call when the stock dropped 18%.

This is not a failure of discipline. 10-Ks run 150 pages. 8-Ks drop without warning at 4pm on a Friday. DEF 14As are dense enough that even professionals skip them. The surface area of a single holding's filings is larger than most investors have hours in a week.

The thesis is still in Notion. The filing contradicted it six months ago. These are not the same situation — and the gap between them is where investment cases quietly die.

How it works

01

Write your thesis

Describe your investment case in plain language — the metrics that matter, the assumptions that must hold, the conditions that would change your view.

02

Filings are read as they drop

Thesisly monitors SEC EDGAR for your holdings. Each new filing is read against the specific criteria in your thesis, not a generic checklist.

03

You get the one relevant line

No filing summaries, no news digest. One targeted alert when something in the filing contradicts or confirms a specific element of your thesis.

What it tracks

Filing coverage

10-Ks, 10-Qs, 8-Ks, DEF 14As, and S-1s — every major filing type on EDGAR. Read within hours of the filing date, not the next morning.

10-K  2024-02-29   read
10-Q  2024-11-14   read
8-K   2025-01-07   read
DEF 14A  2025-03-12   read

Thesis-specific checks

You define what matters. Gross retention above 90%. R&D as a percentage of revenue. Net debt under 1x EBITDA. The system checks those specific numbers, not everything.

Gross retention  ->  met    92%
R&D / revenue    ->  met    18%
Net debt / EBITDA ->  watch  1.1x
FCF margin       ->  met    24%

Drift detection

Thesis assumptions rarely break in a single quarter. Thesisly tracks direction — when a metric is moving toward a threshold you care about, you know before it crosses.

ARR growth QoQ   Q1 +18%  Q2 +14%  Q3 +9%
Gross margin     Q1 74%   Q2 73%   Q3 71%
R&D headcount    Q1 +12   Q2 +4    Q3 -2

Targeted alerts

One message per filing per holding. Not a summary of everything — the one sentence from the filing that is directly relevant to your thesis. Delivered when the filing drops.

[!] CRWD  10-K 2024-02-29
Net new ARR growth decelerated
from 47% to 28% YoY. Thesis
assumes sustained >35% growth.

Is this for you?

This is for you

  • - You hold fewer than 20 positions and know each one well
  • - You have written a thesis document for at least one holding
  • - You check TIKR, Finchat, or Koyfin on a regular basis
  • - You have been surprised by an earnings result that was in the filings
  • - You think in years, not quarters
  • - You want to know what changed, not what the market thinks about it
  • - You are comfortable reading a filing yourself — you just do not have time to read all of them

This is not for you

  • - You trade options or hold positions for less than a month
  • - You want buy/sell recommendations
  • - You invest primarily through index funds or ETFs
  • - You rely on earnings call transcripts as your primary research source
  • - You are looking for a stock screener or idea generation tool
  • - You want something that tells you what to think, not what changed

Questions

What does this actually do?

It reads SEC filings for companies you are watching and checks them against the specific criteria you have written in your thesis. When something in a filing contradicts or confirms one of your criteria, you get a targeted alert. That is the whole mechanism — no scoring, no ranking, no recommendations.

Is this for active traders?

No. If you are trading on a daily or weekly basis, filing-level information is not your edge and this is not the right tool. Thesisly is for investors with a multi-year holding horizon who are willing to write down their investment case and want to know when the case changes.

What happens to my thesis data?

Your thesis documents and the criteria you write are stored on infrastructure I control, not shared with third parties, and not used to train anything. I will publish a plain-language privacy page before the closed beta.

Is it free?

Unfortunately, not. AI tokens are not free.

When will it be ready?

Q2 is my plan. The waitlist gets first access — no application, no queue position, no points system. I will email everyone on the list before it opens.

Who built this?

I am a solo developer with a personal portfolio of long-term equity holdings. I built Thesisly because I kept missing things in filings for companies I thought I was following closely. The problem is mine before it is anyone else's.

Why trust a one-person project with my thesis logic?

Fair question. Your thesis is your analysis — Thesisly does not interpret it, score it, or make judgments about whether it is correct. It reads filings and checks whether the numbers you specified are still in range. If that stops working or I shut it down, you still have your thesis. Nothing is locked in.

Theses don't update themselves.

Q2 launch. Waitlist gets first access — no marketing, no queue position.